With three weeks left in the high school football regular season, the playoff picture is beginning to take shape across Macon County.
This season brings a major change to the IHSA postseason. The playoff field has expanded to 384 teams, with 48 teams in each classification. Classes 1A through 6A will be split into 24-team North and South brackets, with the top eight seeds in each half receiving a first-round bye.
That makes the final three weeks about more than simply qualifying.
For several local teams, the bigger question is where they will land.
MacArthur: Projected No. 10 in Class 4A South
MacArthur enters the final three weeks at 5-1 and currently projects as the No. 10 seed in the Class 4A South bracket.
That would give the Generals an opening-round matchup against No. 23 Canton.
A victory would send MacArthur into the second round against projected No. 7 Bloomington Central Catholic, which would receive a first-round bye.
Perhaps the most interesting part of MacArthur’s current position is where it lands in relation to Rochester.
The unbeaten Rockets project as the No. 1 seed in Class 4A South, but the No. 10 position would put MacArthur on the opposite side of the bracket. Instead of feeding toward Rochester, MacArthur’s portion would run through projected No. 2 Centralia.
That makes seeding particularly important.
A move to No. 9 could put MacArthur into the Rochester side of the bracket much earlier, while climbing into the top eight would earn the Generals a first-round bye.
MacArthur closes the regular season against Glenwood, Springfield and Jacksonville.
A win over Glenwood would be particularly significant. If the Generals were able to finish 8-1, they would have a strong opportunity to climb several spots and potentially earn a bye.
There is also some uncertainty surrounding MacArthur’s eventual classification. The Generals sit near the upper edge of the current Class 4A enrollment range, meaning movement in the statewide field could potentially push MacArthur into Class 5A.
For now, however, MacArthur projects into Class 4A and is firmly in the postseason picture.
Mt. Zion: Projected No. 11 in Class 4A South
Mt. Zion sits directly behind MacArthur in the current projection.
The 4-2 Braves project as the No. 11 seed in Class 4A South and would host No. 22 Jersey in the opening round.
A victory would send Mt. Zion into the second round against projected No. 6 Sacred Heart-Griffin.
That portion of the bracket would eventually run toward projected No. 3 Carterville.
Mt. Zion still has plenty of opportunity to move.
The Braves finish the regular season against Effingham, Taylorville and Mater Dei. Winning out would put Mt. Zion at 7-2 and could move the Braves considerably closer to the top eight.
Mt. Zion’s positioning could also become directly connected to MacArthur’s.
If both teams finish 7-2, playoff points could determine which one receives the higher seed. In the current bracket structure, that could be unusually important because the No. 9 and No. 10 positions feed into different sides of the bracket.
Maroa-Forsyth: Projected No. 2 in Class 2A North
Maroa-Forsyth is in one of the strongest positions of any local team.
The undefeated Trojans currently project as the No. 2 seed in Class 2A North, which would give them a first-round bye.
No. 1 Riverdale, No. 2 Maroa-Forsyth and No. 3 El Paso-Gridley currently occupy the top three positions in what could become a loaded northern half.
Maroa-Forsyth would await the winner of projected No. 15 Reed-Custer and No. 18 Westmont.
At 6-0, the Trojans are no longer playing simply to qualify.
The final three weeks are about maintaining a high seed, securing the bye and potentially positioning themselves for home games deep into the postseason.
Warrensburg-Latham: Projected No. 16 despite 5-1 start
One of the more surprising local projections belongs to Warrensburg-Latham.
The Cardinals are 5-1 but currently project all the way down at No. 16 in the Class 2A North bracket.
That would create an opening-round matchup against projected No. 17 Eastland.
The seed looks unusually low compared with Warrensburg-Latham’s current record, but the Cardinals face one of the more difficult closing stretches in the area.
Warrensburg-Latham still has Eureka, unbeaten El Paso-Gridley and one-loss Tri-Valley remaining.
Both El Paso-Gridley and Tri-Valley currently project as top-eight teams in Class 2A North.
That makes Warrensburg-Latham one of the local teams with the widest range of possible outcomes over the final three weeks.
A difficult finish could leave the Cardinals near their current projected position.
A strong finish could send them climbing rapidly.
If Warrensburg-Latham can get to 7-2 or 8-1, a top-eight seed and first-round bye could come into play.
St. Teresa: Projected No. 8 in Class 2A South
St. Teresa currently occupies one of the most important spots on the entire bracket.
The Bulldogs project as the No. 8 seed in Class 2A South.
That is the final position that receives a first-round bye.
St. Teresa would await the winner of projected No. 9 Chester and No. 24 North Mac.
The Bulldogs are 3-3, which makes their position particularly interesting when compared with Warrensburg-Latham.
Warrensburg-Latham is 5-1 but currently projects No. 16 in the North, while 3-3 St. Teresa sits on the bye line in the South.
It is a good example of how much geography, projected final records and playoff points could matter under the new format.
St. Teresa still has work to do to protect that position over the final three weeks.
Sangamon Valley: Projected No. 21 in Class 2A South
Sangamon Valley remains in the projected postseason field despite entering the final stretch at 2-4.
The Storm currently project as the No. 21 seed in Class 2A South, which would send them on the road against projected No. 12 Red Bud.
Under the previous 256-team playoff system, a two-win team entering Week 7 would have faced an extremely difficult path to qualification.
The expanded 384-team field changes that.
Getting to three victories could be particularly important for the Storm, while reaching four wins would strengthen their position considerably.
Sangamon Valley closes with Cumberland, Villa Grove/Heritage and Argenta-Oreana.
Argenta-Oreana currently outside the projected field
Argenta-Oreana does not currently appear in the projected Class 1A playoff field.
The Bombers would need a major turnaround during the final three weeks to work their way into the postseason picture.
With three games remaining, every result is now essentially a must-win if Argenta-Oreana hopes to enter the playoff conversation.
Meridian and Unity Christian/Mt. Pulaski in separate 8-man picture
Meridian and Unity Christian/Mt. Pulaski compete in 8-man football and are not part of the 384-team Class 1A-through-8A playoff projection.
Their postseason is handled separately.
Meridian has been among the strongest 8-man teams in the area and remains in excellent position heading into the final portion of the regular season.
Three weeks could change everything
The expanded postseason has changed what October means for high school football teams across Macon County.
Maroa-Forsyth is trying to protect one of the highest seeds in Class 2A.
MacArthur and Mt. Zion are trying to climb toward first-round byes in Class 4A.
St. Teresa is trying to hold onto the final bye in Class 2A South.
Warrensburg-Latham could move dramatically depending on how it handles a brutal closing schedule.
Sangamon Valley is trying to strengthen its position near the bottom of the projected field, while Argenta-Oreana is trying to fight its way into the conversation.
And with classifications, geography and playoff points still capable of changing over the final three weeks, none of these projected matchups are locked in.
What is clear is that the new format has given nearly every remaining regular-season game additional postseason significance.
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